A prediction market lets people put money behind what they think will happen. Here is how the shared pool, the percentages and the payouts work on Sabula 256, with a worked example in shillings.
A prediction market is a simple idea: take a question about the future, let people put money on the outcome they believe in, and pay the people who turn out to be right. This guide explains how that works on Sabula 256, with real numbers.
Every market on Sabula 256 is a question with a clear set of outcomes, for example "Will the Uganda Cranes qualify for the next AFCON?" with Yes and No.
When you predict, your stake goes into a single pool together with everyone else's. There is no bookmaker on the other side and nobody at Sabula 256 sets the odds. This is called a parimutuel market: the people who predicted correctly share the pool between them.
The percentage shown next to each outcome is simply the share of the pool staked on it.
If UGX 60,000 is on Yes and UGX 40,000 is on No, Yes shows 60% and No shows 40%. That is a live reading of what predictors collectively expect. It moves every time someone adds a stake, and it is not a forecast from us.
When a market is settled, the winning side splits the pool in proportion to stake:
Payout = (your stake ÷ total staked on the winning outcome) × pool paid out
On markets where the total pool is UGX 50,000 or more, an 8% platform fee is taken from the pool before it is paid out. Pools smaller than UGX 50,000 are paid out in full.
The pool is above UGX 50,000, so 92% of it is paid out: UGX 184,000.
Your share is 10,000 ÷ 100,000 = 10% of that, which is UGX 18,400.
If No had won instead, you would have lost your UGX 10,000 stake. Only stake what you can afford to lose.
Because payouts depend on how the pool is split when the market closes, the return on an outcome falls as more money piles onto it. Backing an outcome that few people believe in pays more if you are right, and backing the favourite pays less. The figure you see before confirming is an estimate that can change until the market closes.
You can hold one position per market. If you change your mind while the market is still open, you can exit early and receive 75% of your stake back.
Each market has a closing time, after which no more predictions are accepted. Once the real-world result is known, the market is settled by declaring the winning outcome, and winnings are credited to winners' wallets automatically. From there you can withdraw to MTN or Airtel Mobile Money.
If a market is cancelled, stakes are refunded.
Sabula 256 is for people aged 18 and over. Prediction markets involve real money and you can lose your stake.
Want to predict what happens next?
Join the market, back your side, and win on MTN or Airtel Mobile Money.
Browse markets →