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Uganda politics prediction markets

Follow Ugandan politics through markets instead of opinion columns. Questions cover presidential and parliamentary races, who will declare a candidacy, cabinet appointments, bills before Parliament and major policy decisions.

Each market states what has to happen for an outcome to count. The live percentage on each side shows how the money is split — a real-time read of what predictors on Sabula 256 expect.

Open politics markets (6)

  • Will Dr. Kizza Besigye be released from detention before December 31, 2026?

    OpenPool UGX 3.0MLeading: No - still detained (55%)Closes 31 Dec 2026

  • Will Bobi Wine formally declare his 2031 presidential candidacy before December 31, 2026?

    OpenPool UGX 1.5MLeading: YES (54%)Closes 31 Dec 2026

  • Will President Museveni reshuffle the Uganda cabinet before year-end?

    OpenPool UGX 1.5MLeading: Yes - reshuffle happens (72%)Closes 31 Dec 2026

  • Will Parliament pass any significant electoral reform bill before December 2026?

    OpenPool UGX 1.2MLeading: No - no reform (52%)Closes 15 Dec 2026

  • Will Uganda Parliament pass any new social media or digital content regulation before December 2026?

    OpenPool UGX 550KLeading: YES (52%)Closes 31 Dec 2026

Will Uganda and Kenya sign a new bilateral trade agreement before December 31, 2026?

OpenPool UGX 520KLeading: YES (61%)Closes 31 Dec 2026

Recently closed and settled

  • Will Minister Balaam Barugahara's personal X (Twitter) account surpass 200K followers before September 1?

    ClosedClosed 1 Sept 2026

  • Will a draft of the new Land Governance Bill be formally tabled on the floor of Parliament

    ClosedClosed 30 Sept 2026

  • Will the World Health Organisation (WHO) officially declare Uganda Ebola-free before September 1 (requiring 42 consecutive days of zero new cases)

    ClosedClosed 31 Aug 2026

  • Will Mariam Wangadya's resignation notice from the Uganda Human Rights Commission be officially accepted by the President before August 31?

    ClosedClosed 31 Aug 2026

  • Will the Ministry of Education lift the temporary suspension on school outings before the next academic term begins in September?

    ClosedClosed 1 Sept 2026

  • Will Parliament's newly endorsed NRM candidates (Kiryowa/Bangumya) be legally challenged in court over their vacant EALA seats before August 31?

    SettledClosed 31 Aug 2026

  • Will the Besigye treason trial hear prosecution witnesses before August 31?

    ClosedClosed 31 Aug 2026

  • Will Dr. Kizza Besigye be granted bail before September 14?

    ClosedClosed 14 Sept 2026

How these markets work

Pick an outcome and stake from UGX 1,000 using your wallet, funded by MTN or Airtel Mobile Money. All stakes go into one pool. When the market is settled, winners share the pool in proportion to their stake; an 8% platform fee applies only to pools of UGX 50,000 or more. You must be 18 or older.

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